First Read: First Thoughts

 

——————————————————— First Read: The day in politics by NBC News for NBC News ——————————————————— FIRST THOUGHTS. *** Analyzing The Turnout: After crunching numbers for the last several months during the Clinton-Obama contest, we’ve been experiencing mathematical withdrawals now that the Dem race is over. In a word, we have the shakes. So to calm our nerves, we got out our abacuses and did some initial fooling around with projected popular vote. Using the 2004 results as a baseline, we were curious as to which states would swing to Obama if he does raise overall turnout by 20% (approximately another 22 million voters) and wins those new voters by a 60%-40% split. Assuming an even distribution — which we know is potentially a flaw in this estimate, so back off! — a 20% turnout increase breaking 60%-40% for Obama would swing four states from red to blue (Iowa, New Mexico, Nevada, and Ohio). If Obama wins the new voters by a 65%-35% margin, two more states come over (Colorado and Florida), with another (Virginia) essentially too close too call. We’re going to crunch these numbers a number of ways over the next few weeks, including using the 2000 election as our baseline (since many folks believe 2004 over-estimates the GOP electorate); seeing what would happen if Obama runs a 50-state campaign but McCain runs a 17-state one; and finding out what the realistic maximum population vote advantage Obama could have while losing the electoral college. In the meantime, have fun with this model. *** Shameless Promotion Time: Beyond turnout, which presidential candidate — McCain or Obama — has the clear advantage right now heading into November? Be sure to tune into NBC Nightly News or click onto MSNBC.com at 6:30 pm ET for the answer from our newest NBC/Wall Street Journal poll. *** Breaking Away: No matter whether Obama or Clinton ended up with the nomination, there would have been congressional Democrats like Dan Boren — who yesterday told the AP that Obama was the “most liberal senator” and that he wouldn’t endorse him — going public with their unease running with the person at the top of the ticket. Only a John Edwards probably would have made a Boren (or a Lincoln Davis in Tennessee) feel comfortable with the national profile of the Democratic Party. But then again, the RNC might have turned even Edwards into an East/West Coast liberal. The question is: How many other Dan Borens are out there? So far, it doesn’t seem as many Dems are fleeing Obama like they did Kerry in 2004. The one big difference between McCain and Obama is that there are more Democrats who will publicly come out and say they are uneasy with Obama than there are Republicans who will say the same about McCain. On the other hand, there are not many Dems who will complain that Obama is not liberal enough; there are plenty of Republicans who will say McCain isn’t conservative enough. And McCain’s campaign doesn’t mind losing a DeLay to Bob Barr, as that plays well with moderate Republicans. But losing a Hagel or a Powell isn’t helpful. http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5jPG6u74pnrtTlz9Fs6pexEYSfdGAD917CV983 For more: The latest edition of First Read is available now at http://www.FirstRead.MSNBC.com ! ========================================= This e-mail is never sent unsolicited. You have received this MSNBC First Read Newsletter newsletter because you subscribed to it or, someone forwarded it to you. To remove yourself from the list (or to add yourself to the list if this message was forwarded to you) simply go to http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/7422971/, select unsubscribe, enter the email address receiving this message, and click the Go button. Microsoft Corporation – One Microsoft Way – Redmond, WA 98052 MSN PRIVACY STATEMENT http://privacy.msn.com