Outlook on Economy Is Brightening, Poll Finds
By ADAM NAGOURNEY and MEGAN THEE-BRENAN
Published: April 6, 2009
Americans have grown more optimistic about the economy and the direction of the country in the 11 weeks since President Obama was inaugurated, suggesting that he is enjoying some success in his critical task of rebuilding the nation’s confidence, according to the latest New York Times/CBS News poll.
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These sometimes turbulent weeks — marked by new initiatives by Mr. Obama, attacks by Republicans and more than a few missteps by the White House — do not appear to have hurt the president. Americans said they approved of Mr. Obama’s handling of the economy, foreign policy, Iraq and Afghanistan; fully two-thirds said they approved of his overall job performance.
By contrast, just 31 percent of respondents said they had a favorable view of the Republican Party, the lowest in the 25 years the question has been asked in New York Times/CBS News polls.
It is not unusual for new presidents to enjoy a period of public support. Still, the durability of Mr. Obama’s support contrasts with that of some of his predecessors at the same point in their terms. It is also striking at a time when anxiety has gripped households across the country and Mr. Obama has alternately sought to rally Americans’ spirits and warn against economic collapse as he seeks Congressional support for his programs.
The poll found that 70 percent of respondents were very or somewhat concerned that someone in their household would be out of work and looking for a job in the next 12 months. Forty percent said they had cut spending on luxuries, and 10 percent said they had cut back on necessities; 31 percent said they had cut both.
For all that, the number of people who said they thought the country was headed in the right direction jumped from 15 percent in mid-January, just before Mr. Obama took office, to 39 percent today, while the number who said it was headed in the wrong direction dropped to 53 percent from 79 percent. That is the highest percentage of Americans who said the country was headed in the right direction since 42 percent said so in February 2005, the second month of President George W. Bush’s second term.
The percentage of people who said the economy was getting worse has declined from 54 percent just before Mr. Obama took office to 34 percent today. And 20 percent now think the economy is getting better, compared with 7 percent in mid-January.
“It’s psychology more than anything else,” Arthur Gilman, a Republican from Ridgewood, N.J., said in a follow-up interview to the poll. “President Obama has turned around the negative feeling in this country. He’s given everything an impetus because he’s very upbeat, like Roosevelt was. It’s too soon to tell if the spending stuff works, but some things have improved.”
Frank Henwood, an independent from Amarillo, Tex., said: “Hopefully, the stock market has bottomed out and is on the rise. Once the stock market shapes up, I think the economy will come back, and then jobs will come back and people will start buying automobiles made in America.”
With the poll finding that an overwhelming number think the recession will last a year or more, Mr. Obama may find he has a deep well of patience to draw on. The poll found that he shoulders virtually none of the public blame for the economic crisis: 33 percent blame Mr. Bush, 21 percent blame financial institutions, and 11 percent blame Congress.
By more than three to one, voters said they trusted Mr. Obama more than they trusted Congressional Republicans to make the right decisions about the economy. And by more than two to one, they said they trusted Mr. Obama to keep the nation safe, typically a Republican strong suit. Nearly one-quarter of Republicans said they trusted Mr. Obama more than Congressional Republicans to make the right decisions about the economy.
“As far as acting like adults and getting things done, the Democrat Party has done better,” said Rachel Beeson, an independent from Wahiawa, Hawaii. “The Republican Party seems to have decided that they are going to turn down anything that comes out of the White House, and nothing will get done that way.”
The poll showed signs of continued political division: 57 percent of people who said they voted for Senator John McCain in November said they disapproved of Mr. Obama’s performance. While Mr. Obama’s budget proposal enjoys the support of 56 percent of Americans over all, sentiments splinter along party lines: 79 percent of Democrats said his budget had the right priorities, compared with 27 percent of Republicans.
The survey was conducted Wednesday through Sunday, while Mr. Obama was in Europe for the Group of 20 summit of the world’s largest economies. Two-thirds of respondents said leaders of other countries had respect for Mr. Obama; when a similar question was asked in July 2006, 30 percent of respondents said foreign leaders had respect for Mr. Bush.
The national telephone poll was conducted with 998 adults. It has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus three percentage points.
Even as Americans strongly support Mr. Obama, they do not necessarily support all of his initiatives. For example, 58 percent disapprove of his proposal to bail out banks. But the percentage of respondents who said they thought it would benefit all Americans, rather than only bankers, jumped from 29 percent in February to 47 percent now, signaling that the White House might be making progress in changing perceptions of the plan.
And as Mr. Obama has proposed a vast expansion in spending and programs, 48 percent of Americans said they preferred a smaller government providing fewer services, while 41 percent preferred a bigger government with more services.
Americans remain concerned about the growing national debt being passed on to future generations, but in the face of the current economic troubles, they are divided over whether it is necessary to increase debt. Forty-six percent said the government should not incur further debt, but 45 percent said the government should spend money to stimulate the economy even though it would increase the budget deficit.
Amid evidence of a surge of populism in response to abuses on Wall Street, respondents said by more than two to one that Democrats cared more about the needs of people like themselves than Republicans did. Seventy-one percent of Americans said Mr. Obama cared more about the interests of ordinary people than about large corporations.
Mr. Obama’s push to increase income taxes on people making over $250,000 a year was supported by 74 percent of respondents. When presented with the possibility that taxing those in the higher income bracket might hurt the economy, 39 percent of those polled still backed the plan.
Marjorie Connelly and Marina Stefan contributed reporting.
More Articles in US » A version of this article appeared in print on April 7, 2009, on page A1 of the New York edition.
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